Split tasks in its minimum definition and estimate those minimum tasks by Optimistic (O) - Most Likely (M) - Pessimistic (P).
With those estimations we do PERT distribution and then add those estimations
(O+(4xM)+P)/6
Example
Task: Migrate x database
Minimum tasks:
- migrate service 1 to y database
- migrate service 2 to y database
- migrate connector to use y database
- test changes in test env
Then we estimate those tasks
| task |
Optimistic |
Most likely |
Pessimistic |
PERT |
Comments |
| migrate service 1 |
10h |
25h |
55h |
28h |
(I round hours up) |
| migrate service 2 |
4h |
14h |
22h |
14h |
take x into account |
| migrate connector |
20h |
40h |
80h |
44h |
|
| test changes |
2h |
7h |
14h |
8h |
|
| total estimation for task |
|
|
|
94h |
|
Reference(s)
https://www.knowledgehut.com/blog/project-management/three-point-estimating
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